Scott Haysom has a PhD in Political Science (International Relations) and specialises in Chinese and Russian foreign policy. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.
Title: U.S. Options for a Potential Invasion of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China
National Security Situation: The People’s Republic of China is organizing, training, and equipping its military to invade Taiwan.
Date Originally Written: February 4, 2024.
Date Originally Published: March 11, 2024.
Author and / or Article Point of View: The author believes in responsibilities to protect and the adherence to international laws.
Background: In 1972 the United States (U.S.) acknowledged that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is one China, and that Taiwan is part of China. The question of who the sole representative of the Chinese people is the primary contentious issue between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan. The PRC views Taiwan as an integral part of the PRC. The growing concern is that the PRC will resort to the use of force to reunite Taiwan with mainland China, and their growing assertiveness in rhetoric and military actions lends credence to this concern. The driving force of this concern is that the Taiwan issue bears on China’s view of reunification and long-term development[1], linking this issue to Chinese nationalism. Both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to a community with a shared history[2]. This shared history links the Taiwan issue to that of the primordial and ethno-symbolist concept of nationalism, complicating any resolution as the PRC views it as an internal matter.
Significance: While a military confrontation in the Taiwan strait is neither imminent nor inevitable, the U.S. and the PRC are drifting towards a war over Taiwan[3]. This national security situation for the U.S. matters for numerous reasons. First, Taiwan is in a strategically critical area, the island sits at the crossroads of Northeast and Southeast Asia. Second, Taiwan is the 23rd largest economy in the world by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its industries are integrated into regional and global supply chains[4]. The Taiwan Strait is a key shipping route, with 88% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage, and almost half the global container fleet passing through it[5]. Third, if the PRC were to invade Taiwan this would lead to a heightened sense of economic and political insecurity among some ASEAN nations. Fourth, the U.S. security and economic interests in East Asia and the greater Asia-Pacific would be threatened. If China were to annex Taiwan and station its military on the island, it would be able to limit U.S. military operations in the region and hamper the U.S. ability to defend its allies[6]. Fifth, the international rules-based system that the U.S. established at the end of the Second World War and has worked so tirelessly to maintain could be undermined by an invasion of Taiwan. Finally, a PRC invasion of Taiwan would destroy global trade[7]. Taking these factors into consideration, an invasion of Taiwan would be detrimental politically and economically to the peace, security and stability of the region, weaken the U.S position in the region, and impact regional and global trade. To counter this, U.S. policy needs to evolve to contend with a more capable, assertive, and risk acceptant PRC that is increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo[8].
Option #1: The U.S. increases its military presence in Taiwan and the Northeast and Southeast Asian region by sending more troops, deploying more naval patrol and combat vessels, and exporting more high-tech weapons.
Risk: There are several potential risks of increasing U.S. military presence in Taiwan and the Northeast and Southeast Asian region. First, if the U.S. intensifies its efforts to support Taiwan, it risks further damaging their relationship with the PRC and hamstringing its ability to advance U.S. interests on a wider range of issues from arms control to climate change[9]. Second, increasing the U.S. military presence in Taiwan could trigger PRC responses in the form of economic warfare and military exercises that would create a headache for Taiwan[10]. Finally, an increased U.S military presence runs the risk of increased military encounters between the U.S. and the PRC which could lead to an accidental engagement, triggering a conflict between the two powers.
Gain: The gain from considering “Option 1” is that this would send a clear message to the PRC, and the U.S allies, that the U.S is willing to support and defend its interests in the region. By sending more troops, naval vessels, and high-tech weaponry to the region the U.S. will counter the PRC’s military build-up and potentially deter them from any future aggression towards Taiwan.
Option #2: The U.S. assists Taiwan in reducing its economic ties with the PRC.
Risk: If the U.S decided to assist Taiwan in reducing its economic ties with the PRC, as noted above, the risk is that this could trigger the PRC to respond in the form of economic warfare and increased military exercises. The PRC could also decide to blockade Taiwan preventing the island nation from trading. As a maritime blockade is the most strategically viable action for the PRC[11], this would be a risky proposition for the U.S. as they would have to intervene militarily to break the blockade risking an all-out military confrontation with the PRC.
Gain: The gain from considering Option #2 is that this would reduce Taiwan’s economic ties and dependence with the PRC leaving the island less vulnerable to economic coercion by the PRC. As noted above, this also sends a clear message to the PRC, that the U.S is willing to support and defend its interests in the region both militarily and through economic means.
Other Comments: None.
Recommendation: None.
Endnotes:
[1] The State Council of the People’s Republic of China (2015). China’s White Paper on China’s Military Strategy 2015. English.gov.cn. [Online]. Retrieved on 4 February 2024. https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2015/05/27/content/281475115610833.htm
[2] Zhong, S. (2019). U.S attempts to play off Taiwan against China will be in vain. People’s Daily. China. Article. [Online] Retrieved on 4 February 2024. https://en.people.cn/n3/2019/0712/c90000-9596665.html
[3] Gordon, S. Mullen, M. & Sacks, D. (2023). To prevent a war over Taiwan, a bolder strategy is needed. Time. Time Ideas. Article. [Online] Retrieved on 7 February 2024. https://time.com/6290300/prevent-a-war-over-taiwan-us-neede-bolder-strategy/
[4] Chubb, A. (2023). Taiwan Contingencies and Southeast Asia: Scenarios in the Grey Zone. Fulcrum. Analysis of Southeast Asia. Article. [Online] Retrieved on 5 February 2024. https://fulcrum.sg/taiwan-contingencies-and-southeast-asia-scenarios-in-the-grey-zone/
[5] Zeng Xiaojun, K. (2022). East Asia: Impact of China and Taiwan conflict on Shipping. Risk Intelligence. Analyst Briefings. Intelligence Report. [Online] Retrieved on 5 February 2024. https://riskintelligence.eu/analyst-briefings/east-asia-impact-of-china-taiwan-conflict
[6] “See Endnote 3”.
[7] Wintour, P. (2023). If China invaded Taiwan it would destroy world trade, says James Cleverly. The Guardian Newspaper. Article. [Online]. Retrieved on 4 February 2024. https://theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/25/if-china-invaded-taiwan-it-would-destroy-world-trade-says-james-cleverly
[8] “See Endnote 3”.
[9] Larison, D. (2023). Why sending more U.S Military troops to Taiwan is so risky. Responsible Statecraft. Analysis/Asia-Pacific. Article. [Online] Retrieved on 7 February 2024. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/02/28/more-overt-us-support-for-taiwan-is-fraught-with-risk
[10] Ibid.
[11] Jestrab, M. (2023). A Maritime Blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China: A Strategy to defeat fear and coercion. Atlantic Council. Report. https://atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-paper-series/a-maritime-blockade-of-taiwan-by-the-peoples-republic-of-china-a-strategy-to-defeat-fear-and-coercion