Dr. Kobby Barda is an expert on geopolitical analysis, with a particular focus on U.S.-Israel relations. He holds a senior research fellowship at the University of Haifa and has previously served as the head of the “Gal Program” for Political Leadership in Israel. Find him on X @kobbybarda. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.
National Security Situation: In 2028, the U.S.-Israel Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expires.
Date Originally Written: February 1, 2024.
Date Originally Published: February 19, 2024.
Author and / or Article Point of View: The author is a leading Israeli geopolitical analyst with extensive experience in American political history and U.S.-Israel relations.
Background: The Qualitative Military Edge (QME) refers to a concept in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding the U.S.-Israel relationship[1]. This concept aims to ensure Israel maintains military superiority over its neighbors. This superiority stems from technological and tactical advancements that allow Israel to deter its numerically larger adversaries. The concept is enshrined in U.S. law and considered crucial for regional stability and peace[2]. Currently, the U.S. and Israel operate under a ten-year MOU signed in 2016 regarding military assistance[3]. This agreement, effective until 2028, furnishes substantial financial aid and enables advanced technology transfers, inherently contributing to Israel’s QME. However, the evolving Middle Eastern landscape necessitates a nuanced approach.
Significance: The current MOU allocates approximately $3.8 billion in aid annually, reinforcing a close relationship between Israel and the U.S. Yet, amidst the U.S. downsizing its presence in the Middle East and the growing nuclear capabilities of nations like Iran, the need for Israel to maintain the upper hand becomes imperative. To ensure QME continues, the next MOU needs to address emerging geopolitical challenges the dynamic security environment in 2028.
Option #1: The U.S. signs a new MOU with Israel that addresses the evolving security environment in the Middle East.
Bolstering the U.S.-Israel alliance through a new MOU isn’t just about regional security; it’s a strategic investment in America’s national interests. This new MOU would incorporate provisions for flexible funding allocations, allowing Israel to respond swiftly to emerging threats. Additionally, this option would enhance cooperation in intelligence-sharing and cybersecurity which could bolster Israel’s capabilities in countering evolving threats, such as cyber warfare and asymmetric warfare tactics employed by non-state actors.
Moreover, given the growing nuclear capabilities of nations like Iran and the uncertainty surrounding regional stability, this new MOU could prioritize strengthening Israel’s defensive capabilities against potential ballistic missile threats and asymmetric attacks. This option may involve expanding joint research and development initiatives to develop cutting-edge defense technologies tailored to address specific regional challenges.
Risk: The new MOU could drive an arms race and serve as a potential obstacle to various peace process. This option, and the additional capabilities it provides to Israel, could also motivate Israel’s enemies to adapt and develop countermeasures not currently envisioned.
Gain: Israel’s QME, reinforced by the MOU, serves as a powerful deterrent against regional threats like Iran’s nuclear program or Hezbollah’s aggression, benefiting both Israel and U.S. security interests in the Middle East. Greater intelligence sharing enhances U.S.-Israel collaboration on threats in the region. As the new MOU will require Israel to purchase most of its aid from U.S. defense contractors, jobs creation in the U.S. will follow.
The new MOU will ensure a strong and stable Israel that promotes regional stability, fostering economic opportunities and deterring conflicts that could disrupt global energy markets and create breeding grounds for extremism. This directly advances U.S. economic and security interests. Ensuring Israel’s QME will enable Israel to remain a beacon of democracy and shared values in a challenging region.
Option #2: The U.S. does not sign a new MOU with Israel.
The decision to abstain from signing a new QME agreement with Israel demands thorough evaluation, considering implications for regional stability, international relations, and U.S. interests.
Risk: Israel’s QME serves as a crucial deterrent against regional adversaries, and not renewing the agreement could jeopardize Israel’s security and embolden its opponents[4]. A decision not to renew the agreement could strain the long-standing alliance between the U.S. and Israel, impacting intelligence sharing, military cooperation, and regional influence. Political pressure from pro-Israel groups and concerns about the impact on the American defense industry could weigh heavily in the decision-making process. Without the leverage associated with financial aid, the U.S. might have less ability to directly influence Israeli policies on specific issues.
Gain: Withholding additional military support to Israel may prevent a potential arms race in the Middle East, alleviating regional tensions. Shifting away from military-centric approaches could incentivize diplomatic resolutions, fostering enduring peace. Directing resources towards collaborative efforts in technology, economic development, and environmental protection may nurture trust and cooperation, fostering a more balanced international landscape. Diverting resources from an expanded QME to Israel allows the United States to prioritize pressing domestic needs. Investing in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and social programs enhances the well-being of American citizens, addressing critical issues within the nation and reinforcing its internal strength and resilience.
Other Comments: Beyond the points initially discussed, several key elements demand deeper scrutiny when examining the potential impact of U.S. aid on Israel’s QME and regional stability:
How will sustained or reduced aid affect regional power balances and the potential for future conflicts decades in the future?
Gauging public opinion, both in the U.S. and Israel, regarding the merits and drawbacks of continued aid is crucial.
Examining public anxieties about potential misuse of funds and human rights implications requires careful consideration.
Exploring alternative approaches to regional security that go beyond solely relying on military strength is of value.
Can continued U.S. support for Israel’s QME coexist with progress towards a meaningful peace process?
Recommendation: None
Endnotes:
[1] Sharp, Jeremy M.(2009, Dec. 4), U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel, Congressional Research Service. https://books.google.co.il/books?id=kyI7nn6jGPMC&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&printsec=frontcover&dq=The+Qualitative+Military+Edge+refers+to+a+concept+in+US+foreign+policy,+particularly+regarding+the+US-Israel+relationship&hl=en&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
[2] Naval Vessel Transfer Act of 2008. https://www.congress.gov/112/statute/STATUTE-126/STATUTE-126-Pg1146.pdf
[3] 2016, September 14, FACT SHEET: Memorandum of Understanding Reached with Israel, The White House. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/14/fact-sheet-memorandum-understanding-reached-israel
[4] 2020, December 16, Dangerous Conditions: The Case Against Threatening Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge, jinsa.org. https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/dangerous-conditions-the-case-against-threatening-israels-qualitative-military-edge/