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Examining Disaster Aid as Cover for a Chinese Fait Accompli Against Taiwan

Editor’s Note:  This article is part of our 2023 Writing Contest called The Taiwan Offensive, which took place from March 1, 2023 to July 31, 2023.  More information about the contest can be found by clicking here.

Michael A. Cappelli II is a U.S. Army All Source Intelligence Analyst that has a BA in Asian Studies and Political Science from Rice University. He has learned about Cross Strait issues from the perspectives of all parties involved through his studies in both mainland China and Taiwan., attendance of GIS Taiwan, and internship at the Baker Institute for Public Policy. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.

Title:  Examining Disaster Aid as Cover for a Chinese Fait Accompli Against Taiwan

Date Originally Written:  July 12, 2023.

Date Originally Published:  August 14, 2023. 

Author and / or Article Point of View:  The author is a member of the US military currently serving in the Indo-Pacific and draws on his experience in Cross Strait issues.

Summary:  China’s aggressive actions make the likelihood of conflict over Taiwan seem inevitable. However, it is possible that China may use Non-War Military Activities (NWMA) to unify with Taiwan[1]. In particular, China may use humanitarian assistance and disaster relief as cover for a fait accompli to gain territory in the Taiwan Strait after a natural disaster. 

Text:  Taiwan’s location in the western Pacific makes it a disaster-prone area. Typhoons, earthquakes, and tsunamis are of particular concern, with local sources indicating Taiwan ranks first in the world in natural disaster risk[2]. While a natural disaster, such as a typhoon, is hard to predict, the situation would provide excellent cover for Chinese NWMA. Climate change is expected to contribute to more extreme weather events in the region, and Taiwan’s geographic proximity to China makes humanitarian response an excellent guise for PLA action against Taiwanese controlled territory. 

A Chinese fait accompli disguised as humanitarian aid and disaster relief will likely take on a multidomain approach, with land, sea, air and cyber warfare entities working to take territory and disrupt an already overburdened Taiwanese disaster response. Damage to undersea communications cables near Taiwan’s Matsu Islands in spring 2023 indicates that China is practicing ways to disrupt communication between Taiwan and its outlying areas[3]. Even if China is unable to take Taiwan itself, outlying islands such as Kinmen and Penghu would provide strategic and symbolic gains for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The capture of Penghu would be especially beneficial to the PLA, giving Chinese forces territory halfway between the mainland and southern Taiwan to help secure supply lines, stage troops and weapons platforms, and extend anti-access, area denial (A2/AD) capabilities for a future invasion of Taiwan[4]. A Chinese fait accompli against outlying, Taiwanese territory would also present a good test of international reaction to Chinese military action against the Taiwan government. 

While a push on Taiwan itself through NWMA would be significantly more difficult, it is not outside the realm of possibility. China’s continued activities within Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), and major military exercises show the PLA is capable of launching air and naval units into the seas and airspace around Taiwan with the goal of not only taking Taiwan but also keeping outside military intervention at bay[5]. These regular, grey zone excursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ by the PLA would also make it more difficult to detect the difference between another PLA exercise and a legitimate PLA push on Taiwan.

To prepare for a possible Chinese fait accompli disguised as humanitarian aid and disaster relief, Taiwan will need to ensure it has resilient critical infrastructure. Taiwan’s ability to recover quickly from a natural disaster would lessen Chinese justification for NWMA and reduce the PLA’s window of opportunity to do so. This plan is not without risk. A focus on critical infrastructure in outlying territories may result in wasted resources, equipment, and specially trained personnel positioned in difficult to defend areas. In contrast, resiliency in Taiwan’s outlying islands may prove a deterrent to Chinese military action by creating a level of uncertainty in Chinese mission success. Even if China is not deterred, the PLA could miscalculate the forces need to take Taiwan’s outlying islands[6]. Such a miscalculation could result in a military disaster and force the PLA to over commit units to taking these outlying territories instead of Taiwan itself. This could provide Taiwan the opportunity to push back China, possibly with international support.

Taiwan could also improve civilian preparedness and disaster recovery. Traditionally, the Taiwanese military acts as the primary first responder to natural disasters[7]. Opportunity does exist to transition disaster response away from military units, especially with Taiwan working to boost civil defense preparedness amongst the general population in case of a war with China[8]. Private, civil defense preparation programs for civilians, with some emphasis on disaster relief, are also increasing in popularity[9]. There is risk involved with this strategy. Shifting natural disaster response away from the Taiwanese military may result in reduced disaster response efficiency. This may also prolong a natural disaster’s impact, increasing the very justification China would need to conduct a humanitarian aid and disaster relief based fait accompli.    

While a natural disaster is hard to predict, it could provide excellent cover for a Chinese fait accompli against Taiwan disguised as humanitarian aid and disaster relief. Taiwan’s outlying areas could be highly susceptible to this type of Chinese NWMA. The Taiwanese government and people have not remained complacent to the threat of Chinese military action. During Taiwan’s 2023 Han Kuang military exercise, the Taiwanese military included its first military exercise to defend the country’s main airport in additional to regular air-raid and amphibious assault preparations[10]. Public polling in Taiwan as indicates an increased interest in defending the island, in particular after the Russian invasion of Ukraine[11]. Preparation however may not stop China if it feels conditions are in its favor to take Taiwan.

Endnotes:

[1] Bilms, K. (2022, January 26). Beyond War and Peace: The PLA’s “Non-War Military Activities” Concept. Retrieved from: https://mwi.usma.edu/beyond-war-and-peace-the-plas-non-war-military-activities-concept/. 

[2] Taoyuan Disaster Education Center. (2023, July 27). Natural Hazards. Retrieved from: https://tydec.tyfd.gov.tw/EN/About/Area/Area_A. 

 [3] Hsu, J. and Mok, C. (2023, May 31).  Taiwan’s island internet cutoff highlights infrastructure risks. Retrieved from: https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Taiwan-s-island-internet-cutoff-highlights-infrastructure-risks.  

[4] Chang, S. and Bailey, R. (2022, June 16). Control Without Invasion: Other Actions China Could Take Against Taiwan. Retrieved from: https://www.barrons.com/news/control-without-invasion-other-actions-china-could-take-against-taiwan-01655438409. 

[5] Blanchard, B. and Lee, Y. (2023, April 10). China ends Taiwan drills after practicing blockades, precision strikes. Retrieved from:  https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-following-chinas-taiwan-drills-with-great-interest-2023-04-10/. 

[6] Brimelow, B. (2022, December 28). Taiwan’s remote islands are on the frontline with China – sometimes only a few hundred yards from Chinese troops. Retrieved from:  https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwans-outlying-islands-are-on-the-frontline-with-china-2022-12. 

[7] Chiang, A. (2018). Taiwan’s Natural Disaster Response and Military – Civilian Partnerships. Global Taiwan Brief, 3 (10). Retrieved from: https://globaltaiwan.org/2018/05/taiwans-natural-disaster-response-and-military-civilian-partnerships/.

[8] Yeh, J. (2023, June 13). Military releases new civil defense handbook amid backlash. Retrieved from: https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202306130007. 

[9] Hsiao, R.  (2022). Taiwan’s Bottom-Up Approach to Civil Defense Preparedness. Global Taiwan Brief, 7 (10). Retrieved from:  https://globaltaiwan.org/2022/09/taiwans-bottom-up-approach-to-civil-defense-preparedness/. 

[10] CNA. (2023, July 27). Military Conducts first anti-takeover drills at Taoyuan. Taipei Times. Retrieved from: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/07/27/2003803809. 

[11] Wu, C., Yeh, Y., Chen, F., and Wang, A. (2023, February 22). Why NGOs Are Boosting Support for the Self-Defense in Taiwan. Retrieved from: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-ngos-are-boosting-support-self-defense-taiwan-206240.  

2023 - Contest: The Taiwan Offensive Aid / Development / Humanitarian Assistance / Disaster Relief Assessment Papers China (People's Republic of China) Major Events / Unforeseen Events / Black Swans Michael A. Cappelli II Taiwan
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Assessing Black Swans and their Pre-Incident Indicators

Charles Cameron, is a poet first and foremost, managing editor of the Zenpundit blog, and one-time Senior Analyst with The Arlington Institute and Principal Researcher with The Center for Millennial Studies at Boston University. He holds an MA Oxon, having studied theology at Christ Church, Oxford, under AE Harvey. He is the designer of the HipBone family of creative and analytic games, based on Hermann Hesse’s Nobel-winning novel, The Glass Bead Game. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.

Title:  Assessing Black Swans and their Pre-Incident Indicators

Date Originally Written:  August 21, 2019.

Date Originally Published:  November 4, 2019.

Author and / or Article Point of View:  The author, who earned a living as a professional futurist during the 1999/2000 rollover, believes Black Swan Events will disrupt our best efforts to predict future threats.  However, with cognitive humility firmly in place national security analysts can observe the cross-disciplinary impacts of trends and can at least begin to think better about where these trends may lead.

Summary:  Black Swan Events come as a surprise, have a major effect, and are often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.  Rather than watching the Black Swan take off from the lake, identifying its initial wing flaps, as warning of the impending event, and where other events intersect, is valuable.  

Text:  Watching a black swan take off is instructive.  It starts, invisibly, on the lake of time, skeeting with wing-flaps to gain speed, achieves lift-off, after quite a while, and whang, whang, whang, ups itself to optimal speed and altitude – at which point we, in our hide in the marshes, recognize “Hey, there’s a black swan here,” and note where on the lake of time the occurrence occurred.  National security analysts often opine on Black Swan Events, which are events that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and are often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.  Equally if not more important than the Black Swan Event are the pre-incident indicators of the event, the flaps of the swan’s wings if you will, that enabled the Black Swan to take flight. 

A first flap might have been Ramon Llull’s devices for calculating all possible knowledge by means of wheels and tables.  As History-Computer.com suggests, “One can ask ‘What exactly is Ramon Llull’s place in the history of computers and computing?’ The answer is Llull is one of the first people who tried to make logical deductions in a mechanical, rather than a mental way.”  On the lake of time, that preliminary wing-flap occurs around 1275 CE.  Llull, a Franciscan, was called Doctor Illuminatus, and beatified by the Church in 1514 CE.

Skipping a few possible Renaissance wing-flaps from the general type of magus on which Shakespeare based his Prospero, and oh, Pascal and Leibniz, we can reach Charles Babbage.  Babbage attained lift-off but not optimal speed or flight altitude with his Difference and Analytical mechanical computing engines.  While Llull’s were wing-flaps with the swan’s orange webbed feet still tracing ripples in the waters of time, Babbage’s definitively cleared the lake, it’s reflection, however, still allowing us to date it to the reign of Queen Victoria and Lewis Carroll’s river-boating tales with Alice – circa 1833 to 1871.  Insufficient funding prevented the construction of Babbage’s engine – an indication that general awareness of a black swan in flight was still lacking.  Even the powerful flap of Vannevar Bush’s memex machine, described in his 1945 Atlantic piece “As We May Think” wasn’t enough.

Next are the wing-flaps of Johnny von Neumann, or International Business Machines aka IBM mainframes at a time when Thomas Watson said no more than six computers would suffice for world-wide supply.  Even the first personal computers (PC), or the portable Osbornes and KayPros made a few flaps, but it’s Steve Jobs’ Macintosh that hits speed and altitude, popularity and elegance.  In 1984 the Macintosh dragged the reluctant PC world into Windows behind it.  Black Swan, we cry, as ARPANET, an internet precursor, becomes the World Wide Web which sets the conditions for Facebook and QAnon.  “We didn’t see it coming” analyst cry, turning to Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s book, “Black Swan,” for an excuse.  Taleb, meanwhile, has moved on, writing more books and a stream of articles – and thinking as yet unwritten thoughts.

The lake of time by now has become, for all practical purposes, the timeline of computing, but the flight plan of the Black Swan has still not been announced.  Black Swans in general don’t issue flight plans and – here’s the catch – are generally recognized only in retrospect.  So the future can be intuited to some degree by assessing the black swans already in flight such as social media and climate change, and tracking them to their national security implications such as weakening of the nation state, the rise of nationalist movements, protest movements, and massive migrations / movements.  But beyond that, and in terms of Black Swans just now achieving lift-off – the future is black, blank, invisible, unseen, and unguessable.  This un-guessability is you will is partly because the future lies where the paths of Black Swans such as mass migration and climate change intersect and cross-pollinate.

Pollination is from a different discourse than swan lift-off, of course – it’s mixing metaphors.  But then by now, interdisciplinarity and perhaps intersectionality intersect, too.  “Only connect” wrote English novelist EM Forster, flapping his dark wings back before the First World War in 1910: “Only connect!” that was the whole of her sermon.  “Only connect the prose and the passion, and both will be exalted, and human love will be seen at its height.  Live in fragments no longer.”

Cognitive humility is valuable to not only surviving Black Swans but identifying the early flap of their wings.  While best assessments of future threats can be made, exploring the cross-over impacts of these assessments can be of value.  So too can considering outside influences and whether possible events will unfold in a sequence or lack thereof.  As national security threats are driven by the needs of people and their actions, returning frequently to climate change and cross-border mass migration threats can be of value.  Finally, one’s depth of historical knowledge will greatly one’s reach of futuristic thinking.  And, despite all this, the future Black Swan Event may still come at us from behind.  

Endnotes:

None.

Assessment Papers Charles Cameron Major Events / Unforeseen Events / Black Swans