Dr Estelle Denton-Townshend is a teaching fellow at the University of Waikato. She holds a Masters and PhD in international politics and security, focusing on the Middle East. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature, nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.
Title: An Assessment of U.S. Political Divisiveness and its Implications for Domestic and International Security
Date Originally Written: October 15, 2024.
Date Originally Published: October 21, 2024.
Author and / or Article Point of View: Estelle Denton-Townshend has a PhD from the University of Waikato in New Zealand. She currently works at the University of Waikato where she is a teaching fellow. The author believes that escalating U.S. political divisiveness drives internal stability which could have international security repercussions. This internal instability is magnified by force multipliers like economic inequality and climate change.
Summary: Political divisiveness is a significant internal security threat in the U.S. This threat leaves the U.S. vulnerable to information warfare efforts mounted by China, Iran, Russia, or even Israel. Until the U.S. ensures it can withstand this threat, it will be unable to compete globally, and this will negatively impact the rules-based international order.
Text: With three armed incidents near U.S. Presidential candidate Donald Trump a month out from the 2024 Presidential election, it is clear that the U.S. is currently politically volatile. International security scholar Barry Buzan states that “the state is essentially a political entity, political threats may be as much feared as military ones[1].” The rise of far right extremism and rhetoric in the U.S.[2], a President that stoked an attack on the U.S. Capital in order to stop the peaceful transfer of power, and a rise in a highly armed population’s willingness to use political violence points to the U.S. being a politically vulnerable country[3]. Trump’s own former Joint Chief’s of Staff Chair and retired U.S. Army General Mark Milley has called Trump “a total fascist” and “the most dangerous person in America[4].” Whether the reader agrees with Milley or not, or whether the reader supports Trump or not, a country where the rhetoric is this flammable, at this level, has a big problem.
As Buzan states, political threats are dangerous to weak states, “but even when the state is both strong and powerful, political threats might still be a source of concern. France and Italy in the immediate post-war years were strong on national grounds, but significantly divided in terms of organizing ideology[1].” The U.S. is certainly ideologically divided, with political stance now representing a significant part of peoples’ identity, and in-group/out-group competitive dynamics are at play. This is concerning; as Buzan points out, powerful states with weak socio-political cohesion have the most to fear from political threats[1].
Not only does the U.S. have developing social and political instability but, despite the surprising resilience of the American economy in the post-covid period, it also has rising economic inequality. A considerable driver of divisiveness is the increasing gap between the ultra-rich and everyone else, and the reduction in the ability of the average person to achieve the American dream[5]. These economic factors have meant that right and left wing populists have more political room to maneuver. Frustration is particularly clear amidst communities that feel left behind by global shifts away from industrial capitalism[6] to towards knowledge and skill-based economies[7]. Meritocracy in America, to the extent that it ever existed, is for all purposes over[8]. Having money already, is the key way to gain access to power and wealth. This adds to the widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s politics with many Americans’ believing that politics is bought by wealthy special interests and their campaign funds[9]. There is also the divide over the rejection or endorsement of “hegemonic masculinity”; the endorsement of which is more likely to be a feature of Trump supporters[10]. All of these growing divides, social, political, economic and cultural are force multipliers in their own right. Unfortunately, these divides are about to come up hard against another force multiplier: climate change.
The security threat of climate change looks set to exacerbate domestic inequality. Researchers estimate that almost half of the direct economic damage linked to Hurricane Helene and Milton in Florida is climate change inflicted[11][12]. Current U.S. President Joseph Biden has stated that Hurricane Milton alone is estimated to have caused $50billion in damage[13]. With hurricane Helene estimated a have caused a further $34billion worth of damage, these two hurricanes have demonstrated that climate intensified weather events are capable of impacting employment and economic growth in the short term even in a country with an economy as large as the U.S.[14]. The health burden from climate change impacts is also set to rise[15], adding intensity to the already contentious health policy debate. Additionally, in the aftermath of climate change intensified weather events the U.S. military is going to increasingly be called on to help rescue and protect citizens from further harm.
The U.S. military has identified that climate change as a security threat that will affect missions, training, supply chains, coastal installations and cause an increased need for the military to assist civic authorities. In addition, the Department of Defense has crafted a climate informed plan to ensure they meet their national defense requirements[16]. Civilian climate change adaptation on the other hand is lagging behind. The new Hunter’s Point community in Florida, Pearl Homes, is the first net zero family home development in the U.S. The houses are sustainable, energy efficient and hurricane proof, with streets designed to flood so that the houses don’t – but this is an outliner rather than the norm[17]. The country’s military is getting ready for climate change, but in the political sphere there are still arguments that delay action to the detriment of citizens.
Climate change is a highly politicised wedge issue that cannot be underestimated in terms of political insecurity. In the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, meteorologists in the U.S. reported that they received death threats, whilst Republican representative Marjorie Taylor Greene shared on X, “Yes, they can control the weather”. It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done[18].” So, you have this contradictory situation whereby a member of the U.S. House of Representatives is spreading disinformation about climate change whilst the nation’s military is bolstering installation resilience to extreme weather to prevent disruptions to operational plans. Moreover, the military recognises that countries that adapt their forces to climate change impacts will secure a strategic advantage over those that don’t[16].
From a security perspective, this lack of nationally coordinated effort to address climate change is likely to intensify political divisiveness in the U.S. However, not only will it impact human security inside the U.S., but an internally divided U.S. is vulnerable to foreign information warfare working to stoke existing divides. In an environment with strategic competition is heating up, the Israeli and Ukrainian wars, and with China launching military drills around Taiwan[19][20], a U.S. where partisan politics is so extreme it is damaging its security is strategically weaker than its allies feel comfortable with[21]. If the U.S. is looking to highlight strategic competition, it would make sense to address this glaring internal weakness that makes it more vulnerable to information warfare. The high affective polarization in the U.S. incentivises U.S. politicians to instrumentalise divisiveness[22] resulting in high stakes political games in the U.S. over power. If the U.S. renders itself vulnerable, than so is the rules-based order which underpins the defense policies of most of its allies.
In the interests of national security, the U.S. demands a new economic and cultural paradigm, one that is designed for this era, and looks to address new challenges such as climate change and the rise of the powerful ultra-rich. Even Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, the world’s biggest hedge fund, is pointing out the risk. As he puts it “I believe that all good things take to an extreme can be self-destructive and that everything must evolve or die. This is now true for capitalism[23].” Inequality hampers economic growth, and this fuels political dysfunction – and dysfunction is significantly higher in the U.S. than in most other developed nations[24]. Inequality can become a security threat[25]. Complicating the picture, climate change is a force multiplier, and will intensify both economic inequality, and quite likely, political divisiveness. These are issues that the U.S. needs to address, or risk this internal divisiveness increasingly becoming a target as strategic competition between the great powers escalates.
Endnotes:
[1] Buzan, Barry. People, States and Fear: An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era. s.l. : Rowman & Littlefield International , 2007.
[2] Starr, Stephen. ‘He gives them the green light’: Trump rhetoric revives hate groups across U.S. [Online] October 13, 2024. [Cited: October 14, 2024.] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/trump-anti-immigrant-racism-hate-white-supremacy-springfield.
[3] Kleinfield, Rachel. Testimony: The rise in political violence in the United Statesa and damage to our democracy. Carnegie Endowment. [Online] March 31, 2022. [Cited: October 15, 2024.] https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2022/03/the-rise-in-political-violence-in-the-united-states-and-damage-to-our-democracy?lang=en.
[4] Mitchell, Ellen. Milley calls Trump ‘a fascist to the core’ in new Woodward book. [Online] October 11, 2024. [Cited: October 13, 2024.] https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4929487-trump-dangerous-milley-woodward/.
[5] Pew Research Center. Trends in Income and Wealth Inequality. [Online] January 9, 2020. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/.
[6] Bonvillian, William B. Donald Trump’s Voters and the decline of American Manufacturing. 4, 2016, Issues in Science and Technology, Vol. 32.
[7] Berkes, Enrico and Gaetani, Ruben. Income Segregation and the Rise of the Knowledge Economy. 2, 2023, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2023, Vol. 15, pp. 69-102.
[8] Fuhrer, Jeff. The Myth of Meritocracy runs deep in American History. [Online] October 10, 2023. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/the-myth-of-meritocracy-runs-deep-in-american-history/.
[9] Pew Research Center. Americans’ dismal view of the Nation’s Politics. [Online] September 19, 2023. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/americans-dismal-views-of-the-nations-politics/.
[10] Verscio, Theresa K. and Schermerhorn, Nathaniel E. C. Hegemonic masculinity predicts 2016 and 2020 voting and candidate evaluations. 2, 2021, Psycholgoical and Cognitive Sciences, Vol. 118.
[11] Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment. Climate change attribution of Hurricane Helene. [Online] October 2024. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/research/climate-science/modelling-tropical-cyclones/climate-change-attribution-hurricane-helene/.
[12] Grantham Institute. Climate change attribution of Hurricane Milton. [Online] October 2024. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/research/climate-science/modelling-tropical-cyclones/climate-change-attribution-hurricane-milton/.
[13] Helmore, Edward and Betts, Anna. Biden says Hurricane Milton caused staggering $50bn in estimated damage. [Online] October 12, 2024. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/florida-in-hurricane-milton-damage.
[14] Mohammed, Theron. Hurricanes are becoming more frequent, violent, and costly — plus they’re hitting jobs and economic growth. [Online] October 11, 2024. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-helene-economy-gdp-damage-cost-rebuilding-florida-climate-2024-10.
[15] al., Marina Rmanello et. The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms. 2023, The Lancet, Vol. 402, pp. 2346-2394.
[16] Department of Defense, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Acquisition and Sustainment). Department of Defense 2024 2027 Climate Adaptation Plan. [Online] September 5, 2024. [Cited: October 14, 2024.] https://www.sustainability.gov/pdfs/dod-2024-cap.pdf.
[17] Ramirez, Rachel. As parts of Floride went dark from Helene and MIlton, the lights stayed on in this net-zero, storm-proof community. CNN. [Online] October 12, 2024. [Cited: October 14, 2024.] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/12/climate/hurricane-milton-helene-florida-homes/index.html.
[18] Dunbar, Marina. Marjorie Taylor Greene condemned over Helene weather conspiracy theory. [Online] October 7, 2024. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/07/marjorie-taylor-greene-hurricane-helene.
[19] Alluri, Aparna and Perera, Ayeshea. China holds military drills around Taiwan as ‘punishment’. [Online] May 23, 2024. [Cited: October 14, 2024.] https://www/bbc/com/news/live/world-asia-69051793.
[20] Hayes, Rupert Wingfield and Perera, Ayeshea. China ‘punishes’ Taiwan president remarks with new drills. [Online] October 14, 2024. [Cited: October 15, 2024.] https://www.bbc.com/news/artciles/cvgd4yn45qlo.
[21] Toosi, Nahal. Why the world is betting against American Democracy. Politico. [Online] January 1, 2024. [Cited: October 15, 2024.] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/15/what-foreign-diplomats-say-about-u-s-politics-behind-closed-doors-00135326.
[22] Kleinfield, Rachel. Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [Online] September 23, 2023. [Cited: October 15, 2024.] https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/09/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-the-united-states-what-the-research-says?lang=en.
[23] Dalio, Ray. Why and how Capitalism needs to be Reformed. [Online] April 5, 2019. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-how-capitalism-needs-reformed-ray-dalio/.
[24] Siripaurapu, Anshu. The U.S. inequality Debate. Council on Foreign Relations. [Online] April 2022. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-inequality-debate.
[25] Tzuriel, Chagai. Inequality is a Threat to International Security. [Online] June 8, 2021. [Cited: October 12, 2024.] https://www.peacecomms.org/blog-library/inequality-is-a-threat-to-international-security.
