Dr Estelle Denton-Townshend is a teaching fellow at the University of Waikato. She holds a Masters and PhD in international politics and security, focusing on the Middle East. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature, nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.
Title: Assessing Strategic Competition, Non-State Armed Groups, and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for the West and the Rules Based Order
Date Originally Written: June 28, 2024.
Date Originally Published: July 15, 2024.
Author and / or Article Point of View: The article is written from the point of view of the West and assessing the role that Non-State Armed Groups (NSAG) play in an increasingly fragmented international sphere, and the implications of this on the rules-based order.
Summary: NSAGs challenge the West’s efforts to strengthen global engagement within the rules-based order during this time of strategic competition. These challenges exist both within wars such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, civil wars in failed states such as Sudan, and within the West itself, which has seen a surge in far-right extremist groups.
Text: The security issue presented by NSAGs is hugely complicated by the emergence of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) and shifts towards a more multipolar international order. These developments have important implications for the West, the rules-based order, and international security.
NSAGs significantly complicate international security crises. One example is evident in the Houthis attacking ships traveling through the Red Sea trading route, disrupting international trade, in response to the Israeli-Hamas war. Regional autonomy and Global South leadership has grown given the emergence of GEF, which is a “policy-driven reversal of global economic integration” in which economic engagement is increasingly driven by political alignment. This fragmentation has been characterised by the rise of powers such as China, Russia, and Gulf countries like Iran and Türkiye among others. Their increased foreign policy assertiveness, coupled by their transactional approach and anti-Western stance has strengthened authoritarian regimes and weakened the rules-based order, democratic institutions, and led to an increased militarisation of politics[1]. This increased foreign policy assertiveness has frequently meant engagement with non-state actors, including NSAGs.
In the Red Sea and Middle Eastern context, power vacuums within states such as Yemen, Ethiopia and Sudan have provided opportunities for NSAGs, some of whom hold territory. Increasingly when a state disagrees with a neighbouring state, they look to establish ties with alternative leadership through local NSAGs, weakening the incumbent government and more broadly the state system. In an era of increased strategic competition between the West and the revisionist states China and Russia, this development means that access to regions such as the Red Sea could be increasingly facilitated through NSAGs, who will then owe loyalty to their state sponsors.
State supported mercenary armies are a unique geopolitical threat in the international arena. In Africa, security provided by the Russian-controlled Wagner Group has enabled local governments to push out Western forces, including the US and France[2]. A stark example of this is Niger asking for the withdrawal of US troops as Niger’s military government increasingly turns towards Russia for security support. Similar developments occurred in Mali and Burkina Faso where military takeovers have been followed by the expulsion of French and European troops. All three countries have replaced these international security partners with Russia[3]. Russia provides security assistance without political pressure to address human rights and democratic issues, making them a preferable partner for authoritarian governments, in particular governments resulting from military junta coups[2].
With increased strategic competition leading to a shoring up of alliances, understanding the risks and opportunities of alliances with NSAGs is important as their increased involvement in geopolitically significant issues appears to be a feature of international fragmentation. This is evident in the Israeli-Hamas war and the linked Red Sea crisis, where states that can bridge the divide and maintain relations with NSAGs are able to play an outsized role, as has been demonstrated by Qatar and it’s facilitation of negotiations with Hamas within the Israeli hostage crisis[4]. Other players in the conflict are the Iranian backed Houthis, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (5) and Hezbollah, all defending the Palestinian cause for their own political gain.
NSAGs can provide their state sponsors with local intelligence as they are embedded in the societies they operate within. They understand the culture, they speak the language, they have local connections. They also frequently provide services to locals where communities are faced with state neglect or failure. However, they also seriously undermine local security, and this can spill across borders. As U.S. Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff states “Threats like Wagner, terrorist groups and transnational criminal organizations continue to sow instability in multiple regions. I think we can all agree, what happens in one part of the world, does not stay in one part of the world[2].”
NSAGs can also align against their own region’s strategic interests, with the violent right wing Nordic Resistance Movement (a neo-Nazi group in Sweden, with branches in Norway, Denmark, Iceland, and also Finland) belonging to a network that includes the Russian extreme right organisation the Russian Imperial Unit, which is in turn affiliated with military units like the Rusich Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group which has been involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine since 2014[6]. Further to this, the war in Ukraine has intensified a sharp and increasingly enduring rift between Russia and the western powers. The resulting increased strategic competition has led to a greater emphasis on securing allies, and for Russia, this is mainly in the Global South where many countries remained neutral or non-aligned on Ukraine. The West’s failed efforts to secure support for Ukraine from the Global South[7], can be taken as an indication of the West’s diminished influence and leverage in that sphere[1].
“U.S. military superiority has deteriorated or vanished in key defense capabilities, and the balance of power in strategic locations such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the western Pacific has shifted in a way that emboldens determined and often unscrupulous enemies, adversaries, and rivals[8].” Among those strengthened in response to U.S. military deterioration are NSAGs. As such, given their military and political clout, the world must reckon with their impact. NSAGs can link into disinformation silos online, and thus offer strategic opportunities to stoke historical divisions and contentious issues. For instance, there has been a rise in antisemitism, with historical conspiracies developing new modern twists – the Jews are now responsible for Covid, previously it was the plague. This reimagining of centuries old antisemitic conspiracies theories is prevalent in the Western European extreme right[9], whose enthusiasm for Russian President Vladimir Putin aids his attempts to undermine European democracy[10]. Given increased strategic engagement from revisionist great powers such as Russia incorporates non-state actors, NSAGs have “aggravated the geopolitical divides between Western powers and those which do not completely subscribe to democratic principles and the prevalent rules-based international order[1].”
This paper sought to demonstrate that the US’ and West’s vulnerability to GEF is not just economic through reduced trade, increased financial instability and the disruption of global trade and supply chains, but also through more armed conflict[11]. This armed conflict is increasingly aggravated by those that possess power outside of the state system, such as NSAGs, including state sponsored mercenary armies. Coming to grips with this complication is an increasingly important factor in working to reinvigorate the rules-based order in face of increased challenges under GEF.
Endnotes:
[1] Mia, Irene. Armed Conflict Survey 2023: Editor’s Introduction. IISS. [Online] 2023. https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/armed-conflict-survey/2023/editors-introduction/
[2] Baldor, Lolita C. Expanding extremist groups in Africa fuel worries that they could attack teh US or Western allies. AP News. [Online] 26 June 2024. [Cited: 27 June 2024.] https://apnews.com/article/africa-niger-alqaida-islamic-state-26d23d581507515e96ff15bfdc96a60b
[3] Al Jazeera. US agrees to withdarw troops from Niger amid Sahel region’s pivot to Russia. Al Jazeera. [Online] 20 April 2024. [Cited: 27 June 2024.] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/20/us-agrees-to-withdraw-troops-from-niger-amid-sahel-regions-pivot-to-russia#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20will%20withdraw,media%20reported%20late%20on%20Friday..
[4] Pack, Jason. The road to Middle East peace runs through Doha. Foreign Policy. [Online] 7 November 2023. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/07/qatar-israel-hamas-gaza-war-middle-east-peace/
[5] Gambrell, Jon. Suspected Houthi attack targets a ship in the Gulf of Aden, while Iraqi-claimed attack targets Eilat. AP News. [Online] 27 June 2024. https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-rebels-attacks-israel-hamas-war-93db9eb116510da1c108d110d0db42f8
[6] Counter Extremism Project Staff. CounterPoint Brief: U.S. Designated Nordic Resistance Movement as Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization. Counter Extremism Project. [Online] 18 June 2024. [Cited: 27 June 2024.] https://www.counterextremism.com/blog/counterpoint-brief-us-designated-nordic-resistance-movement-specially-designated-global
[7] Heine, Jorge. The Global South is on the rise – but what exactly is the Global South? The Conversation. [Online] 3 July 2023. https://theconversation.com/the-global-south-is-on-the-rise-but-what-exactly-is-the-global-south-207959
[8] Center on Military and Political Power. Center on Military and Political Power. [Online] N.D. [Cited: 24 February 2024.] https://www.fdd.org/projects/center-on-military-and-political-power/
[9] Lipowsky, Josh. Antisemitism Resurgent: Manifestations of Antisemitism in the Twenty First Century . Counter Extremism Project. [Online] January 2022. https://www.counterextremism.com/sites/default/files/reports/2022-01/Antisemitism%20Part%20II_21st%20Century_012622_PDF%20version.pdf
[10] Butt, Shelby and Byman, Daniel. Right Wing Extremism: The Russian Connection. Survival: Global Politics and Strategy (April-May 2020). s.l. : Routledge, 2020.
[11] Gramegna, Pierre. The new reality of geo-economic fragmentation – speech by Pierre Gramegna. European Stability Mechanism. [Online] 16 may 2024. https://www.esm.europa.eu/speeches/new-reality-geo-economic-fragmentation-speech-pierre-gramegna
