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James P. Micciche is a U.S. Army Strategist (FA59) currently assigned to XVIII Airborne Corps. He holds degrees from The Fletcher School at Tufts University and Troy University. He can be found on Twitter @james_micciche and LinkedIn. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, or the USG. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature, nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.
National Security Situation: The United States must prioritize non-kinetic competition to effectively counter China’s growing economic and military power.
Date Originally Written: May 14, 2024.
Date Originally Published: July 1, 2024.
Author and / or Article Point of View: This report, written from the perspective of a concerned American military officer, argues for a multi-pronged approach to surpass China’s challenge below the threshold of armed conflict.
Background: The rise of China presents a complex strategic competition for the United States. China’s economic and technological advancements, coupled with its assertive military modernization and foreign policy, pose a significant challenge to American global leadership. This competition spans economic spheres, with China’s unfair trade practices and infrastructure investments abroad vying for influence. Geopolitical competition manifests in China’s territorial claims, expanding military capabilities in the Pacific, and attempts to reshape international norms and institutions to suit its interests.
Significance: Sino-American strategic competition is a national security concern for several reasons. China’s economic model, if left unchecked, threatens American economic prosperity and global leadership in trade. Its military modernization disrupts the regional balance of power, potentially emboldening China to pursue territorial ambitions through intimidation or coercion. Furthermore, China’s authoritarian model, emphasizing state control and limited freedoms, stands in stark contrast to American values and democratic principles. If China’s model gains traction, it could weaken the global order built on democratic norms and human rights.
Option A: Economic and Technological Fortification
Description: The United States must revitalize its domestic industrial base and technological prowess to outcompete China. This includes strategic investments in infrastructure, education (particularly STEM fields), and research & development. Policies should incentivize domestic manufacturing and innovation in critical sectors like artificial intelligence, clean energy, and advanced materials. Additionally, the United States should work with allies to diversify supply chains, reducing dependence on China for essential goods and technologies.
Risks: Short-term budgetary pressures may limit investments, and political gridlock could hinder long-term strategic planning. Additionally, protectionist policies aimed at bolstering domestic industries could strain relations with allies.
Gains: Renewed American economic competitiveness weakens China’s leverage in trade negotiations. Technological leadership fuels economic growth and fosters job creation. A robust domestic industrial base strengthens national security by ensuring access to critical materials and technologies.
Option B: Building Alliances and Partnerships
Description: The United States should strengthen existing alliances and forge new partnerships with like-minded nations. This collaborative approach strengthens American bargaining power in international institutions and economic forums. Joint efforts can address unfair trade practices, promote adherence to international rules and norms, and counter China’s attempts to reshape the global order in its favor. Additionally, cooperation on military exercises and defense technology development deters potential Chinese aggression and reassures regional allies.
Risks: Balancing national interests with those of allies can be challenging. Disagreements on how to approach China could create friction within alliances. Additionally, relying on allies can limit American freedom of action in certain situations.
Gains: A united front with allies strengthens American influence and leverage on the world stage. Collective action presents a more formidable challenge to China’s economic ambitions and geopolitical maneuvering. Strong partnerships bolster regional security and stability.
Option C: Promoting American Values and Soft Power
Description: The United States should champion its democratic values, human rights, and commitment to the rule of law as an attractive alternative to China’s authoritarian model. This involves promoting democracy and human rights abroad, strengthening institutions that uphold these principles, and ensuring transparency and accountability in American governance. The United States should also leverage its cultural influence through educational and exchange programs to foster goodwill and understanding with other nations.
Risks: Hypocrisy or inconsistencies in upholding American values can undermine its credibility. Additionally, promoting democracy and human rights in certain countries could be perceived as interference in their internal affairs.
Gains: A strong focus on American ideals attracts partners who share democratic values. Increased global trust fosters international cooperation on global challenges like climate change and pandemics. Promoting a rules-based international order strengthens American leadership and global stability.
Other Comments: The three options outlined above are not mutually exclusive. A comprehensive strategy combining economic and technological revitalization, strong alliances, and promotion of American values offers the most effective means to compete with China. Success also hinges on maintaining a strong national defense as a deterrent against potential Chinese aggression.
Recommendations: NONE
Endnotes:
The following prompt was given to Google Gemini by James Micciche:
Generate a report of no more than 1000 words on how countries can compete more effectively with China below the threshold of armed conflict. The report must use the template found at https://divergentoptions.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Options_Paper_Template_20180301.pdf . The report should be written from the perspective of an American military officer who believes the United States must increase its capacity and efforts to compete with China below levels of armed conflict.
The first section is titled “national security situation,” and is a one sentence overview of the report.
The second section is titled “date originally written,” and is today’s date in month, day, year format.
The third section is titled “date originally published,” and is only has TBD written.
The fourth section is titled “Author and/or Article Point of View,” and summarizes the perspective of the article in one sentence.
The report must include a Background section which is a tightly-worded description of the national security situation and the driving forces around Sino American Strategic Competition.
The report must have a Significance section which defines why Sino American strategic competition is a national security situation matter; the impact of Sino American strategic competition on the United States and the international order; and why does Sino American strategic competition security situation matter?
The report must generate at least three distinct options on how the United States can compete more effectively with China below the threshold of armed conflict. Each option is its own section and includes a detailed description followed by two sub-sections outlining each options’ risk and gain to the United States in that order.
The report must include an “Other Comments” section that focuses on any information that does not fit into the sections above or any connections between the options above.
The last section is “Recommendations” and only has the world NONE listed.
