Iku Tsujihiro is an MA candidate in the Security Studies Program (SSP) at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. She focuses on the U.S.-Japan economic and energy security alliance, U.S. military operations in the Indo-Pacific, and nuclear deterrence in Northeast Asia. Currently, she is a research intern for Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair Policy Center. She is selected to be on the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Nuclear Scholars Initiative (NSI) Fellowship. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.

National Security Situation:  U.S. reliance on Chinese renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality is harming U.S. national security. 

Date Originally Written:  March 10, 2024.

Date Originally Published:  June 24, 2024.

Author and / or Article Point of View:  The author believes that while U.S. efforts to address climate issues are important, relying on Chinese renewable energy technologies to do so will harm U.S. national security. 

Background:  There is a global effort to “go green.” The United States aims to achieve net-zero emissions and carbon neutrality by 2050 by relying heavily on renewable energy such as wind, solar, and hydropower[1]. However, China is dominating the renewable energy market by exporting solar photovoltaic (PV), wind turbines, and energy storage equipment. China makes up 30% of the global renewable energy market now[2]. The Chinese renewable energy investment rose by 40% in 2023, and the clean energy sector contributed $1.6tn to the Chinese economy in 2023. Clean energy is the driver of the Chinese economy as it contributed to 40% of rise in its Gross Domestic Product[3].The United States is forced to be dependent on the Chinese renewable energy materials and supply chains as it looks for solutions to climate change issues[4].

Significance:  The global effort to “go green” is creating dependency on Chinese renewable energy technologies. Ironically, environmental security efforts may create a national security threat for the United States, the European Union (EU), and other Western allies. While it is important for the United States to address climate issue challenges, this cannot be done at the expense of losing the greater strategic competition against China.

Option #1:  The U.S. halts Chinese renewable energy technology imports and decouples from the Chinese renewable energy technologies market. China made up 89 % of extra-EU (outside of the EU) source of imports of solar panels in 2021. China (64 %) and India (35 %) were the origin of almost all imports of wind turbines in 2021. The United Kingdom (UK) (42 %) was the largest extra-EU export destination for wind turbines, followed by the United States (15 %). The United States (23 %) was the largest extra-EU export destination for solar panels[5]. 

Risk:  This option would negatively affect or at least slow down the U.S. objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The United States, always at the forefront of the international community, aims to address climate issue like any other national security issues as a global leader. Choosing to prioritize the U.S. energy and economic security may signal a wrong message to the international community, that the United States has changed its attitude towards the climate issues. 

Gain:  Given the extent of the U.S. reliance on the Chinese renewable energy market, the United States discontinuing its import of Chinese renewable technologies will relieve its dependence on the Chinese supply chains. This will stabilize the U.S. energy security through eliminating a critical dependency on China. Extending the effort to EU and other Western allies would be even more effective to decouple from the Chinese economy in this area. 

Option #2:  The United States, working with Australia, exports Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) to China to create Chinese dependency on the Western market. China also aims to achieve carbon neutrality goal by 2060[6]. However, China’s reliance on coal is up to 55% and petroleum at 19%. China is turning to LNG, a cleaner option to replace coal and petroleum[7]. The main LNG suppliers for China are Australia and the United States. China’s expected import will be above 15% by 2030, and China is already a top importer of LNG globally in 2023[8]. 

Risk:  Besides the threat of furthering away from a global cooperation on ameliorating the climate change, additional risk to taking this option is a potential escalation in a time of conflict because of sanctions. If a war or conflict were to occur between China and the United States or in the Indo-Pacific involving the U.S. allies, the United States now has the option to stop exporting all its LNG to China. However, then the United States will lose a large market of LNG that would damage its economy. Moreover, an embargo on energy can quickly escalate the conflict. The U.S. embargo on oil during the World War II was one of the triggers for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor[9]. The United States may risk its economic stability and its escalation strategy by creating Chinese dependency on the Western LNG exports. 

Gain:  This option will flip the current power dynamics between China and the United States (also EU, and the UK), and the United States can create Chinese dependency on the Western energy market. This strategy will create vulnerability in the Chinese energy and economic security that the United States can take advantage of by placing sanctions, in case of national security threats such as a contingency in the Indo-Pacific.

Other Comments:  None.

Recommendation:  None. 

Endnotes:

[1] The United States Government. (2024, March 6). National Climate Task Force. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/climate/. 

[2] Evans, D. (2022, July 27). China to export $100bn in renewable energy technology in 2022, bright future ahead. Energy Voice. https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/431020/china-to-export-100bn-in-renewable-energy-technology-in-2022-bright-future-ahead/ 

[3] Myllyvirta, L. (2024, February 15). Analysis: Clean energy was top driver of China’s economic growth in 2023. Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-was-top-driver-of-chinas-economic-growth-in-2023/. 

[4] Willis, S. M., Ben-Itzhak, A. P., & Rizzuto, S. (2023, July 31). US and European Energy Security amid great-power competition. Air University (AU). https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3475784/us-and-european-energy-security-amid-great-power-competition/

[5] Eurostat. (n.d.). International trade in products related to green energy. Eurostat Statistics Explained. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=International_trade_in_products_related_to_green_energy#Solar_panels:_China_largest_import_partner.2C_United_States_largest_export_partner.

[6] China Europe Carbon Neutral Technology. (n.d.). CARBON NEUTRALITY IN CHINA. China-Europe Carbon Neutral Sustainable Urban Development. https://chinaeucn.com/carbon-neutrality-china/#:~:text=In%20September%202020%2C%20president%20Xi,%E2%80%9Ccarbon%20neutral%E2%80%9D%20by%202060

[7] International Trade Administration | Trade.gov. (2023, April 7). China – Energy. China — Country Commercial Guide. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/china-energy

[8] Samaha, Y. (2024, February 14). China regains LNG Import Crown in 2023. Energy Intelligence. https://www.energyintel.com/0000018d-a738-da72-a3fd-f77986b60000#:~:text=China%20retook%20the%20crown%20as,and%20healthy%20inventories%20capped%20demand.

[9] Imperial War Museums. (n.d.). Why did Japan attack pearl harbor?. IWM Stories. https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/why-did-japan-attack-pearl-harbor#:~:text=Japan%20attacked%20the%20U.S%20Pacific,an%20empire%20of%20its%20own.